UNC Charlotte economist John Connaughton on Monday discussed this past year’s economic activity, along with projections for this year’s economy.
He highlighted 2024’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the uncertainty of the first 120 days of the Trump administration.
He placed a heavy emphasis on the role of trade and tariffs, which he said create more questions about the future of North Carolina’s economy.
"I do not know what tariffs are going to, and I do know that tariffs are going to impact consumption in this country," Connaughton said. "They're going to impact exports, they're going to impact imports. And, if they have enough of an impact, they're going to also affect domestic business investment."
Connaughton pegged the likelihood of a recession at 30%. On the flip side, he said that the likelihood of an economic boom was lower — at 10%.
And he said that as industries across the nation scale back as a result of tariffs, unemployment rates are expected to rise.